After a bizarre loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday, the LA Kings welcome the Eastern Conference’s Toronto Maple Leafs to town on Saturday.
Projected Lineups
LA Kings (4-5)
The forward group looked quite a bit different at Kings’ practice on Friday
Good morning, El Segundo. Kings are showing –
9 – 11 – 13
12 – 24 – 33
22 – 46 – 91
48 – 28 – 34— Zach Dooley (@DooleyLAK) October 28, 2022
In name form, that is:
Kempe – Kopitar – Vilardi
Moore – Danault – Arvidsson
Fiala – Lizotte – Grundstrom
Lemieux – Anderson-Dolan – Kaliyev
A lot to unpack here. Head Coach Todd McLellan said, “there are some things going on with Kopi’s line that I’m not happy with” after Thursday’s game. Enter Gabriel Vilardi, who cameoed there late in the game against the Jets. The second line will stay intact, and there are some big shifts in the bottom six.
Kevin Fiala is on the third line with Blake Lizotte and Carl Grundstrom, while Jaret Anderson-Dolan centers Brendan Lemieux and Arthur Kaliyev on the fourth line. It should be noted that Quinton Byfield did not play the last game due to an illness and he will miss Saturday as well.
We’ll see if this is McLellan trying to send a message to certain players in an effort to shake things up.
The back end should look much the same:
Anderson – Doughty
Durzi – Roy
Edler – Clarke
Petersen
Quick
Another big question is who will start in goal. It hasn’t seemed to matter; the play hasn’t been up to par. With Jonathan Quick giving up five goals on 18 shots, the coin I just flipped landed on Cal Petersen.
Toronto Maple Leafs (4-3-1)
Here’s how Toronto’s forwards skated in practice on Friday:
#Leafs forward lines at practice Oct. 28/22
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-Jarnkrok-Simmonds
Engvall-Kampf-AubeKubel
Extra: Aston-Reese, Malgin@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR— David Alter (@dalter) October 28, 2022
Things aren’t going swimmingly for the Maple Leafs in the early going. They suffered a disappointing home loss to Arizona, and back-to-back losses in Vegas and San Jose have put a damper on the start of their season. Auston Matthews scored just his second goal of the season on Thursday, as he hasn’t really gotten going. Former LA King Wayne Simmonds looks like he will draw into the lineup at Crypto.com.
On the back end, we’ll see the NHL debut of Filip Kral:
Looks like Filip Kral is set to make his debut tomorrow. Skating with Mark Giordano on the third pair.
Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Holl
Giordano-Kral
Mete— David Alter (@dalter) October 28, 2022
Not unlike Los Angeles, Toronto has run into some issues on the back end. Goaltender Matt Murray is hurt, as well as former Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin. Left defenseman Timothy Liljegren is also on LTIR with Murray and Muzzin.
With Erik Kallgren getting the start in San Jose, Ilya Samsonov will get the nod between the pipes against the Kings.
Ilya Samsonov will start vs Kings tomorrow. @BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
— David Alter (@dalter) October 28, 2022
5-on-5
| Team | GP | GF | GA | xGF% | CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | PDO |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 8 | 12 | 13 | 50.3 | 52.7 | 52.0 | 48.2 | 0.989 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 9 | 22 | 24 | 52.8 | 51.7 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 0.979 |
Both teams are above average in most of the possession categories. The Kings are being aided a bit by their incredible 71.9% CF% at 5-on-5 against Winnipeg. You’ll notice there is a lot more going on – or should I say, going in – at 5-on-5 for the Kings than there is for the Leafs. Despite the slow start for Toronto, this is a dangerous offense, and the Kings will need to be much better on the defensive side of things.
Special Teams
Normally lauded for their impressive power play, Toronto’s also been pedestrian with the man advantage. Though, at 6-for-27, their 22.6% fares better than LA’s 17.1%. What remains to be seen is if there will be any shake-up to the Kings’ power play units, in addition to the changes to their 5-on-5 lines.
Making matters worse for the Kings is they have now allowed the most short-handed goals against in the NHL (3).
While short-handed, neither team has been great. LA’s 78.1% is middle of the pack in the league, while Toronto (75.9%) is bottom-ten. Neither team has scored a short-handed goal.
Betting Odds
Let’s take a look at the odds, courtesy of our partner Betstamp (promo code: hockeyroyalty).
*Note: the odds below are for sports books offered in New York. Refer to available sports books specific to your state.
**Odds as of 8 am ET/5 am PT and may have changed since this has been published.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that the Kings come into this one as home underdogs. WynnBet and DraftKings are offering +125 if you like the hosts to bounce back. Toronto is trying to snap a two-game losing streak; BetRivers’ -143 is your best bet there.
The total on this game is 6.5, and, well, if you’ve followed the Kings at all this season, I don’t think that can be set high enough. If, like me, you like the Over, then DraftKings’ -120 is where you should shop. If you believe in McLellan getting the team to buy into a stingy defense style in response to Thursday’s loss, BetRivers has the Under at +105.
DraftKings Player Props
Sponsored by DraftKings (promo code THPN)
With the Leafs in town, it only makes sense to take a look at the players now in Los Angeles thanks to separate trades made with Toronto. I’m looking at you, Trevor Moore, Carl Grundstrom, and Sean Durzi.
At DraftKings, Moore is +340 to score a goal, Grundstrom is +500 and Durzi is +800. Durzi is also +350 to pick up a point on the power play.
For Toronto, Auston Matthews finding the net on Thursday could be a sign of things to come, he is -125 to score on Saturday. He is also +115 to record a power play point while Mitch Marner and William Nylander are +125 and +145 respectively.
Morgan Rielly (7) and John Tavares (6) lead the Leafs in assists on the season. They are +105 and +110 to record a helper against the Kings.
Good luck, and enjoy the game!
Follow me on Betstamp @JWPatarino!
(Main photo credit: Harry How/Getty Images)