Ontario Reign: Series preview vs Firebirds + prediction

The I-10 series between the Coachella Valley Firebirds and Ontario Reign is in its second playoff phase as the two meet in a best-of-five series.

The Ontario Reign went 5-1-2-0 against the Firebirds in eight regular-season matchups. Ontario took the first two meetings, followed by Coachella Valley winning the next three, and then the Reign took the final three meetings in April, including clinching the Pacific Division and earning a first-round bye. This is the second time in three years the I-10 series will take place, with Coachella Valley easily taking care of business with a three-game sweep of Ontario in the 2024 Calder Cup playoffs.

That was then, this is now. The two teams have seen plenty of roster turnover since that series, with only 12 players from both sides remaining who played in at least one game in that series. The rivalry has only intensified with each game since the Firebirds’ inaugural season, so bragging rights will be on the line.

Given that the two teams are within 300 miles of each other, this best-of-five series will follow a traditional 2-2-1 format, with the Reign having home-ice advantage.

Here is the full schedule below:

Game 1: Wednesday, April 29th, @ Toyota Arena, 7 PM PST

Game 2: Friday, May 1st, @ Toyota Arena, 7 PM PST

Game 3: Tuesday, May 5th, @ Acrisure Arena, 7 PM PST

*Game 4: Thursday, May 7th, @ Acrisure Arena, 7 PM PST

*Game 5: Saturday, May 9th, @ Toyota Arena, 6 PM PST

Now that the introduction is over, let’s get into my favorite part: previewing the series and giving my prediction.

Tale of the tape:

Goals per game: 

CV: 3.26 (11th

ONT: 3.29 (T-8th)

Goals against per game: 

CV: 3.03 (T-10th)

ONT: 2.60 (T-4th)

Shots on goal per game:

CV: 29.5 (T-8th)

ONT: 26.0 (31st)

Shots on goal against per game:

CV: 30.9 (T-29th)

ONT: 26.0 (4th)

Save percentage (non-empty-net goals):

CV: .906 (T-4th)

ONT: .906 (T-4th)

Power play: 

CV: 15.7% (26th)

ONT: 21.2% (8th)

Penalty kill: 

CV: 80.4% (22nd)

ONT: 84.2% (5th)

Season-leading scorers

CV: Logan Morrison – 29 goals, 32 assists, 61 points in 68 games

ONT: Martin Chromiak – 28 goals, 28 assists, 56 points in 71 games

Season series leading scorers

CV: Lleyton Roed – 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points in eight games played; Tyson Jugnauth – 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points in eight games played

ONT: Cole Guttman – 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points in eight games played

Series preview:

Use home cooking to your advantage

The rust versus rest debate will be something to watch in Game 1 as the Reign will play their first game in 11 days. Ontario had a record of 47-20-3-2 with a .688 points percentage, good enough for fourth in the AHL. Coachella Valley, on the other hand, finished the season with a record of 22-12-2-0 and a .639 points percentage for tenth in the league. Having home-ice advantage in the series is going to be crucial for the Reign and will be important for them to get off to a good start against a quality road team.

Wright back at it

He’s back! The Reign will be getting rookie forward Jared Wright back in time for Game 1 as he was loaned back to the team following the Kings’ elimination from the 2026 playoffs. The Reign, having enough depth already, will add a big piece to their bottom six by getting Wright back. His size, speed, and forecheck should create trouble for a Firebirds backend that likes to transport the puck up the ice and jump into the play. Despite not recording a single point in three games against Coachella Valley, Wright tallied 30 points (17 G, 13 A) in 54 games for Ontario in the regular season.

Beware of active Coachella Valley defensemen

Speaking of Firebirds defensemen, that is one group the Reign need to pay very close attention to. Coachella Valley has lots of speed and scorers in the forward group when they play their transition game, and that is in large part because of their defensive core being active in the offensive zone, joining the rush, and moving the puck up the ice.

The Firebirds accumulated 171 points from their defensive group, ranking third in the Pacific Division, led by rookie defenseman Tyson Jugnauth with 45 points. Ontario will have its hands full with the offensive-minded Firebirds’ backend, so not giving them time and space on the breakouts and maintaining gap control will be important in this series.

Goaltending matchups

Nikke Kokko is expected to start the Firebirds. In the team’s three-game series against the Bakersfield Condors, Kokko won both elimination games for Coachella Valley, but was leaky at times. His series numbers were a 4.39 GAA and an .831 sv%. In two regular-season games against the Reign, Kokko allowed seven goals and recorded an .865 sv%.

For the Reign, they will have Pheonix Copley and Erik Portillo to choose from as their Game 1 starter. I expect Portillo to be tabbed as the starter for Ontario. In four games against the Firebirds, Portillo surrendered 13 goals and posted a .902 sv%.

For both teams, getting traffic and second and third opportunities will be the task against the opposing netminder.

Win the special teams battle

The Reign have the clear edge in this department. Special teams are a premium in the playoffs. The Reign ranked in the top ten on both the power play and penalty kill, while the Firebirds were in the bottom half in both. In the eight regular-season matchups, Ontario went 5-for-24 on the power play (20.8%), and Coachella Valley went 1-for-18 (5.6%). If those numbers carry over into the series, that should bode well for the Reign.

Potential x-factors

CV

Jani Nyman: Nyman can score and has had no problem scoring goals against Ontario in his career; his first career AHL playoff goal came against Ontario. In 19 career games against the Reign (regular season and playoffs), Nyman has six goals and two assists. Coachella Valley’s lethal goal scorer will look to keep making an impact against the Reign in this series.

Jagger Firkus: The Firkus Circus, as they call him in the desert, had a phenomenal sophomore season in the AHL. The 22-year-old finished second on the Firebirds in scoring with 56 points and tied for second on the team with Nyman in goals (21). Firkus scored twice in the season series against the Reign in five games, but missed time in the final month with an injury, therefore missing the final three matchups against the Reign. He’s back now and scored twice in Coachella Valley’s series against Bakersfield. Having a great shot as he does, the Reign will need to hold him at bay in this series.

ONT

Andre Lee: Lee led the Reign in goals for most of the season, but finished second on the team with 26, behind Martin Chromiak’s 28. It was a breakout year for the fourth-year pro, but he fell into a scoring slump at the end of the season, scoring once in his final 10 games. Ontario will look for Lee to get back on track and even recapture his 2024 Calder Cup playoff magic, where he scored four times in eight games.

Aatu Jamsen: Jamsen started the year quietly, but turned it on around the end of December. From that moment to the beginning of March, Jamsen scored 11 goals in 24 games before being sidelined with an injury. He returned for Ontario’s final eight games and recorded three points. This will be his AHL playoff debut, and the Reign will look for his skill and playmaking to give them an offensive punch in their middle/bottom six.

Prediction: The regular-season series was close. Five of the eight games were decided by one goal, with four of those games going to overtime. I believe it will be close again in this series and would be shocked if one team swept the other. I have this series going the distance with Ontario prevailing and heading to the Pacific Division Finals. Reign in 5.

Featured image credit: Mgean Sanders/Ontario Reign

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