The Ontario Reign and Bakersfield Condors meet in the first round of the AHL’s Calder Cup playoffs. It will be a best-of-three series.

The Kings and Oilers, who will square off in game two tonight, will see their AHL affiliates start their first-round series tonight. In the season series’ eight games, the Reign went 5-3-0, which was capped off by a Martin Chromiak overtime winner a week ago.

Today we will preview the three-game series of the two teams and give a prediction at the end.

Tale of the tape

Goals for:

ONT: 231 (10th)

BAK: 223 (14th)

Goals against:

ONT: 198 (6th)

BAK: 202 (8th)

Power play: 

ONT: 21.8% (2nd)

BAK: 20.6% (5th)

Penalty kill: 

ONT: 80.2% (23rd)

BAK: 80.3% (21st)

Season leading scorers

ONT:

TJ Tynan: 9 goals, 57 assists, 66 points

BAK:

Seth Griffith: 15 goals, 48 assists, 63 points

Schedule

Game 1: Wednesday, April 24th, @ Ontario, 7 PM PST

Game 2: Saturday, April 27th, @ Bakersfield, 7 PM PST

Game 3: Sunday, April 28th, @ Ontario, 5 PM PST (If necessary)

*All games can be seen on AHLTV.

Series preview:

Home ice is key

Home ice wasn’t very kind to the Reign this season. Before the all-star break, the Reign compiled a record of 8-11-3. They couldn’t buy a win at home. After the all-star break, the Reign were able to turn their record around on home ice and went 11-0-3 in their final 14 games, including 9-0-1 in their last ten. With the Reign will have games one and three on their home ice, having Toyota Arena be a tough place to play for opponents is critical come playoff time, especially in a short best-of-three series. Can the Reign carry over their home-ice success from the final two months into the playoffs?

Special teams are close

The special teams numbers overall are pretty much even. The Reign finished the season with the second-best power play while the Condors finished with the fifth-best. Both teams finished in the bottom half on the penalty kill with the Condors ranking 21st and the Reign at 23rd, but the Reign’s penalty kill finished 30th on home ice compared to sixth on the road. While the special teams are neck-and-neck, Bakersfield had the advantage in the eight-game season series by going 9-for-25 (36%) compared to Ontario’s 7-for-30 (23.3%). In the last meeting, the Reign went 3-for-4 after going 4-for-26 on the man advantage the previous seven games.

However, Bakersfield in the last five meetings against Ontario went 8-for-13, including 8-for-11 on the road in three games (1/21, 3/24, 3/30). Both teams have players who can put in the net or are effective on the power play. For the Reign, it’s the usual suspects such as TJ Tynan, Samuel Fagemo, Akil Thomas, and Charles Hudon. For the Condors it’s Seth Griffith, Lane Pederson, and Raphael Lavoie. That trio combined for 32 of Bakersfield’s 51 power-play goals on the year, with Lavoie and Pederson leading the way with 14 and 11.

Converting on man-advantage opportunities will be crucial along with staying out of the penalty box for both sides. The Reign have been the better five-on-five team most of the season series and if they can play like it in this playoff series and cash win the special teams battle, it’ll bode well for them.

Goaltending

Erik Portillo is projected to be the starting goalie for the Reign in this series. This doesn’t come as a surprise as Sturm hinted at it two weeks ago. Portillo posted a .907 save percentage in six games against the Condors which saw him surrender three goals in each of the last four meetings against them. However, most of the goals allowed were either on the penalty kill or on the rush, which seemed to give the Reign defense issues as Bakersfield has been the one team to stymie Ontario in the neutral zone (this will also play a factor in the series). On the year, Portillo posted a .918 save percentage which was fourth among qualified rookie netminders, but allowed at least three goals in each of his last four starts. Portillo is one to have a short memory and bounce back, so I don’t see him having his confidence shaken entering this series.

One of Jack Campbell or Olivier Rodrigue will man the pipes for the Condors. Campbell had the better numbers against the Reign by posting a .918 save percentage and a shutout in four games played as opposed to Rodrigue’s .885 save percentage in three games played. Based on experience, I expect Condors’ head coach, Colin Chaulk, to tab the veteran netminder for this series.

Depth players will play a big role

Both teams are even in their top six, and each got one player back from injury just before the season’s end. The Reign got veteran winger Hudon back in their season finale while the Condors got back a winger of their own in second-year player Xavier Bourgault.

Here is how the teams lined up in their last meeting on April 17th.

Looking up and down the lineup, these teams match up well and it’s no coincidence that five of the eight meetings were decided by one goal, which were all Rrign wins. Two games that the Reign won were because of their depth, and I would give the Reign a slight edge in this series. Having Hudon, Thomas, and Alex Turcotte back for the series makes the lineup deeper for the Reign.

Prediction

This is going to be an evenly matched series with high intensity. I anticipate it going the full three games with the Reign getting contributions from their depth players like they have all season long to help them prevail to advance to the Pacific Division’s best-of-five semifinal round.

Pick: Reign in three

Featured image credit: Mike Zitek/Ontario Reign

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