LA Kings: Reasons for optimism amidst mediocre stretch

The LA Kings head into their final 15 games in third place in the Pacific Division, currently lined up for yet another first-round meeting with the Edmonton Oilers.

It’s been a bit of a ho-hum stretch for the Kings lately, though, after their abysmal December and January, ho-hum doesn’t sound so bad. Over their past ten games, LA is 5-4-1.  It’s been a bit of a mixed bag with back-to-back 5-1 wins against the Vancouver Canucks and New Jersey Devils but also a pair of drubbings by the Dallas Stars, a disappointing loss in St. Louis, and a lifeless performance against the New York Islanders in which they at least found a way to pick up two points.

I won’t give too many pats on the back for a win against the Chicago Blackhawks, but a convincing 5-0 win is worth mentioning.

All of this has left a feeling that this team is better than the non-contenders, but a tier below the top teams in the Western Conference. Considering LA went 1-4-1 against Western Conference playoff teams recently, the feeling is warranted.

But it isn’t all doom and gloom. There are reasons for optimism, even during this run of play that has been just good enough to inch them out of the Wild Card position and into third place in the Pacific.

Strong 5-on-5 Metrics

Looking back a little bit further, the LA Kings are 13-9-3 over their last 25 games. That’s good for 16th in the NHL and 9th in the West. Meh. Peeling things back a little more though, they are 7th in the NHL in shot share (52.6% CF), 4th in expected goals share (53.5% xGF), and 8th in scoring chances share (52.5% SCF).

Most of this is buoyed by their defensive play, but strong nonetheless and probably worthy of better results in the Win-Loss column. The 31st-ranked shooting percentage (6.7%) during that time, however, is a big reason for the mediocrity.

And, to put it simply, the on-ice performance this season as a whole at 5-on-5 has continued to be one of the best in the NHL.

The return to the lineup of some key players should help lead to some positive shooting percentage regression.

Health

Adrian Kempe returned to the lineup on March 9th and has a pair of goals and four points in his five games back. For a team that lacks many true snipers, getting last season’s 41-goal scorer back into the mix has been – and will continue to be – important for the Kings.

Mikey Anderson made his return on March 11th against the Islanders (probably a good game to ease back into). The 2023-24 season has not been a great one for Anderson.

However, in those four games back, he’s led the LA blueline in On-Ice CF% and xGF% while only being on the ice for one 5-on-5 goal against. Maybe the brief hiatus has helped him push the reset button.

While there is no timetable (is there ever?) for Viktor Arvidsson‘s return, it does seem like the Swedish winger is inching closer to game action. He did not make the trip on the team’s recent road trip, but LA Kings play-by-play man Nick Nickson mentioned during the broadcast that a return during the upcoming home stretch could be a possibility.

He’s only played in four games this season, but Arvidsson has been a key contributor to the LA offense since he was acquired in 2021. He has back-to-back 20-goal seasons as a King and his 59 points last season was his highest tally since 2017-18. How healthy he’ll be upon his return is always going to be a question, but there’s no doubt his offensive presence is missed.

Carl Grundstom doesn’t carry the same name recognition as the others, however, over the past two seasons, Grundstrom ranks behind only Kempe in terms of active Kings’ players in Goals/60 at 5-on-5. If he can return, he will be able to help the team with one of the lowest shooting percentages in the league.

Special Teams

Starting with the power play, it’s been a little better than the perception. It’s come under heavy scrutiny simply because last season LA’s power play was top five in the NHL. While this year’s 21.7% isn’t going to necessarily excite anyone, it is slightly above league average. When looking at the last month’s worth of games, the power play is just under 24%, and with Kempe back and Arvidsson’s return imminent, there’s reason to believe this will continue to improve.

The Penalty Kill has been strong all season long as the Kings are the top team in the NHL when down a man with an 86.4% PK efficiency. This is largely due to goaltending. This season, LA’s penalty kill has actually allowed a full expected goal against per 60 minutes more while short-handed than they did last season. But the league’s best penalty kill save percentage has propped them up:

That said, we’re 67 games into the season and the team’s save percentage while short-handed is still among the NHL’s best. The .907 mark Cam Talbot and David Rittich have been at the past 25 games ranks 2nd in the league.

Edmonton’s power play has killed LA in each of the last two playoffs. If the two teams were to meet again, LA could be better equipped this time around.

No More Stars

Perhaps the best news down the stretch for the Kings is there are no more games against the Dallas Stars. The 4-1 loss in Dallas on Saturday probably didn’t feel as close as the score would lead you to believe – and that was the second 4-1 loss to Dallas this month. Those coupled with the 5-1 loss Dallas handed LA back in January, it’s been a pretty bad matchup for the Kings.

And, at least as of now, a first-round matchup with Dallas isn’t a likely scenario.

It’s not just Dallas, though. In the final 15 games, the LA Kings play only five games against teams currently in a playoff position: Tampa Bay, Vancouver (x2), Edmonton, and Winnipeg. On the other hand, they get the luxury of seeing the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, and Anaheim Ducks a combined five times.

The LA Kings are not a perfect team right now and aren’t going to be one as they head into playoffs. But they’re still a strong 5-on-5 team with the best penalty kill in the NHL and an above-average power play that, in the right matchup, could present a problem for someone in the first round.

Data via Natural Stat Trick and HockeyViz