Data Driven: A numbers look at LA Kings 2, Colorado Avalanche 5

Photo Credit: Alex Cave

The LA Kings dropped their season opener to the Colorado Avalanche 5-2 on Wednesday night from Crypto.com Arena. Despite the score, there were some encouraging takeaways when looking a little deeper at the numbers.

(Numbers per Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck)

At 5-on-5, the Kings were right there with the Avalanche in terms of possession and scoring chances, holding an 8-5 edge in high-danger chances.

Team CF% xGF% SCF% HDCF%
Colorado Avalanche 47.4 52.5 41.0 38.5
LA Kings 52.6 47.5 59.0 61.5

Colorado held the upper hand in expected goals, largely due to the dominant performance of the Nathan MacKinnon line. He, Mikko Rantanen, and Jonathan Drouin held a 61.4% expected goal share against the Kings, who had little answer for the Avs’ top line.

LA opted for their top D pairing, Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty, to take on the MacKinnon matchup. Needless to say, the Colorado forwards got the best of that pair.

The best line of the night for the Kings was also their top line. The trio of Quinton Byfield, Anze Kopitar, and Adrian Kempe controlled most of the play when they were on the ice, though they did struggle to generate many dangerous chances.

Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 CF% xGF% SCF% HDCF%
Quinton Byfield Anze Kopitar Adrian Kempe 59.3 47.1 66.7 50.0

Special teams played a pretty big factor in this one, with Colorado converting on one of their three power plays while the Kings went 0-for-5. It wasn’t for a lack of chances. LA had 17 scoring chances and seven high-danger chances with the man advantage, including Pierre-Luc Dubois‘ four high-danger chances. Colorado goaltender Alexander Georgiev was up to the task most of the night, ending the game with 1.89 GSAx (per MoneyPuck).

Individual Stats

Here’s how the LA Kings’ skaters fared at 5-on-5

Shot Attempts

Data per Natural Stat Trick

Unsurprisingly, the top four defensemen saw the greatest volume. The Kings really were up against it on the blueline. Andreas Englund and Tobias Bjornfot saw just 11:30 and 10:12 of ice time, respectively, at 5-on-5. As it stands, the bottom pair presents an issue for LA.

Adrian Kempe led the team in on-ice shot attempts, while Quinton Byfield and Trevor Moore tied for second.

It wasn’t a great showing for Bjornfot or Trevor Lewis, as each spent the bulk of their time in the LA zone.

Scoring Chances

Data per Natural Stat Trick

When we look at scoring chances, most grade out pretty well. Even Englund was on the ice for eight scoring chances and only four against. Anderson and Doughty were a little more high event, that happens when you’re spending some time against the MacKinnon line.

Lewis once again comes in at the bottom. He wasn’t on the ice for a single LA Kings’ scoring chance but was on the ice for five Colorado scoring chances. With how comfortable Alex Laferriere has looked, it’d be a shame to see him sent to Ontario when he’s likely the better option than Lewis. And we can’t use the fact that Laferriere played with Dubois and Fiala as a crutch for him – he was on the ice for seven LA scoring chances. Lewis himself played with Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore. The two of them combined to be on the ice for ten scoring chances. Said another way, Danault and Moore fared much better when not with Lewis.

Shot Contributions

Speaking of Laferriere, he was the leader in the clubhouse in terms of shot contributions (12) at 5-on-5. He led in shot attempts with seven and tied with Dubois in shot assists with five. The 21-year-old isn’t going to make Rob Blake‘s decision easy.

Once again, Trevor Moore finds himself near the top of the shot contribution list with nine total.

It was a rare quiet day for Kevin Fiala, who mustered only six.

A concern I’ve had all offseason is if there will be enough offense coming from the blue line. Bjornfot, Gavrikov, and Englund combined for just one shot contribution at 5-on-5.

Between the pipes, Cam Talbot actually graded out quite well. According to MoneyPuck, Talbot finished with 2.93 GSAx. I will note Money Puck’s expected goals were vastly different than Natural Stat Trick’s, so keep that in mind.

Overall, it wasn’t a terrible showing from the LA Kings. They didn’t have many great answers for the MacKinnon line, and they had a hard time getting much past Georgiev. There were positives, though. Notably, the fact that LA held the edge in many possession metrics at 5-on-5 created chances on the power play (albeit with nothing to show for it) and some excitement from Laferriere.

Saturday against Carolina isn’t going to be any easier. In fact, it’ll probably present a bigger challenge. That team comes at you in waves, and the way the current defense group is set up will be an issue. We’ll see if there are any changes come Saturday.

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