LA Kings: Could another trade with Minnesota be an option?

The dust has officially settled on the end of the LA Kings season, the player exit interviews, and whatever you call what Rob Blake and Luc Robitaille gave us. Now, we shift our focus to the areas of need this offseason. Of course, the team still needs to decide on their next head coach, but as of this writing, there is only one goaltender under contract for the 2024-25 season.

The @LAKings have signed goaltender David Rittich to a one-year contract worth an average annual value (AAV) of $1,000,000 through the 2024-25 season.https://t.co/eqjQHx5rOJ

— LA Kings PR (@LAKingsPR) May 15, 2024

After what should be considered a better-than-expected season from David Rittich, the LA Kings rewarded him with a one-year deal worth $1 million AAV. A tidy bit of business to get a stable option over the line at a very reasonable cost.

What LA decides to do from here is front of mind for most Kings fans. Will they re-sign Cam Talbot, something he expressed an interest in during his exit interview? If so, will that be it? Will the team look for a trade? There are plenty of possibilities though the limited salary cap space Blake has to work with makes things tricky.

Names like Linus Ullmark and Juuse Saros will likely dominate the goalie rumor mill but another name to keep filed away is Filip Gustavsson in Minnesota.

The Athletic’s Joe Smith and Michael Russo tackled the question of whether or not the Minnesota Wild should trade Gustavsson in a recent mailbag article. Russo and Smith opined on what the return could be for the Swedish netminder:

“Getting a first-rounder for Gustavsson seems unlikely, but perhaps the Wild could get a second. They’d probably prefer to get a rostered player back, anyway — ideally a middle-six winger. They could also use Gustavsson as a chip to move up in the first round, though many of the teams ahead of them aren’t necessarily in the market for goalies.”

The two suggest that while Minnesota will listen on Gustavsson, there’s no guarantee he’ll be traded. So, is Gustavsson someone the Kings should consider exploring?

Contract

For starters, his contract is reasonable. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has two years left on his deal that pays him $3.75M in AAV. I’m comfortable with this being only two years left on this deal and at $3.75M, that would still leave the Kings paying their goaltending position less than $5M in total. That’s good business for me.

Performance

For his career, there’s one word that comes to mind with Gustavsson: inconsistent.

There’s no better example of that inconsistency than his two seasons in Minnesota.

Gustavsson is coming off a poor 23-24 season with the Wild. Among goaltenders that played at least 15 games, he was among the worst in Evolving Hockey’s GSAx:

Now let’s look at his 22-23 season:

He went from being one of the best goaltenders in the league to one of the worst. Why? (Hint: #goalies).

It certainly wasn’t the defensive environment. Per Natural Stat Trick the Wild ranked first in the NHL at xGA/60 and third in HDCA/60 at 5-on-5 this past season.

Now we’ll take a look at how he handled various danger shots against. Per MoneyPuck, Gustavsson went from sixth in the league in Low Danger Save Percentage (LDSV%) in 22-23 at .976 to 14th this past season at .957. While that will explain some of the problems, it was the high danger chances that got him. In 22-23, Gustavsson posted a .850 HDSV%, good for 16th in the league. So, he was excellent at making the saves he should, and a little above league average in making the difficult stops. In 23-24, his HDSV% plummeted to .781, the sixth-worst in the NHL.

Is this just a bit of randomness? Again, Minnesota was one of the stingiest in the NHL at allowing high-danger chances. However, it’s worth noting that despite the .781 HDSV% last season, that was still higher than his expected HDSV% of .718.

Expanding a little more, it really is something to see the stark difference between the two seasons:

Despite his struggles, Gustavsson was selected to represent Team Sweden in the 2024 World Championships. To date, he’s stopped 42 of the 45 (.933 SV%) shots he’s seen in his two appearances while picking up two wins.

Acquisition Cost

Given his performance last season and the fact that Minnesota, while not too tight against the cap with over $5M to spend and no big contracts to deal with this summer, do still need some help on the blueline so a few extra bucks could go a long way.

The LA Kings do not own a second or a third-round pick in 2024, but they do own a gently used Arthur Kaliyev. Could a team like the Wild who always struggles to score goals offer a change of scenery for the young Kaliyev? He seems to fit the bill for a middle-six winger that Minnesota needs and the Kings are clearly ready to move on from the 22-year-old. Rather than send him elsewhere for a mid-round pick, I’d rather Kaliyev be used as part of a package to acquire a a player that can help LA now. Gustavsson could be just that.

Despite battling some inconsistencies, Gustavsson is a talented goalie and one I think makes sense to take a flier on if the price is right.

Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton – USA TODAY Sports