LA Kings: Tempering Trade Deadline Expectations

The NHL Trade Deadline is less than three weeks away and while the LA Kings are sitting in a Wild Card spot, it’s probably best not to expect much help in the way of a trade acquisition.

(Salary Cap figures per CapFriendly)

As things sit right now, the Kings have less than $1 million in cap space with two players, Blake Lizotte and Carl Grundstrom, making a combined $2.8 million on Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR). Assuming those two are eventually back in the fold, that would leave LA with 24 total roster players.

The most likely candidate to be sent down would seem to be Jaret Anderson-Dolan via waivers, which still would leave them more than $1.8 million over the cap while at the maximum of 23 players. To clear that much space would require two players to be on the way out, which would bring the roster down to 21 players. From a pure contract standpoint, Alex Turcotte and Alex Laferriere do not need to clear waivers and would be the “easiest” to move. That would leave the LA Kings roster looking something like this:

There’s virtually no wiggle room in this scenario. We could see either Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence being optioned given the fact that they do not have to clear waivers if the team needs the extra forward, but in general, that’s what they’re looking at.

It’s difficult to find where a trade fits in all of this.

Positions To Upgrade?

The good news is there aren’t many positions that need an upgrade. The whole world thought goaltending would be a problem, but through 53 games that hasn’t been the case. Per MoneyPuck, among goaltenders with ten starts, David Rittich is second in the NHL in Goals-Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) while Cam Talbot is ahead of the likes of Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, and Jake Oettinger. Not to mention, the LA Kings’ .920 save percentage on the penalty kill is by far the best in the NHL. A mark so good that it’d even be in the top ten at 5-on-5.

The rumors will swirl, but I don’t see it, not at the trade deadline. An offseason move makes more sense between the pipes.

With Viktor Arvidsson healthy (and assumptions being made that Lizotte and Grundstrom will return before season’s end), the forward group is pretty well-stocked. Especially when you consider the team is (likely) going to be voluntarily placing better players (Turcotte, Laferierre) in the AHL while rostering players that aren’t as good (Trevor Lewis, Arthur Kaliyev, Grundstrom). Up front, this isn’t a problem of talent, it’s a problem of roster construction. It is the bed that Rob Blake has made for himself.

I’ve long had issues with how the defense is constructed, but we’re well past that. However, it isn’t good when three of your defensemen show up in the bottom ten among NHL defensemen in failed zone exit percentage:

1) was looking through defencemen and to see who is failing most often on their zone exits. the guy in last is L-O-L, but more worrisome is that three of the 10 worst percentages are all on the Kings pic.twitter.com/p7w5GTAN31

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) February 18, 2024

But hey, why would you want to get out of your own zone with possession?

Still, the LA Kings do have internal solutions to part of this problem. They could, hear me out, play Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence in the same lineup (*gasp*), and have Andreas Englund watch from the press box. If the organization is dead set on not playing a defenseman on their off-side, Jacob Moverare is sitting right there in Ontario, CA. He would be an easy upgrade to Englund.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the team address the blueline with a trade to bring in a more capable top-four puck mover. This would slide some players down from their current roles into ones they’re more suited for. It just doesn’t seem feasible given the cap constraints.

There are internal options. The team is choosing not to use them.

Most Likely Trade Pieces

Other than draft picks and prospects, three players could make sense as trade options should the LA Kings try to make an upgrade.

Arthur Kaliyev

In what was supposed to be a big year for Kaliyev, things have not gone well. After scoring 13 goals and 28 points in 56 games last season, the 22-year-old winger has just six goals and 14 points in 39 games this season. All while seeing his power play time diminish.

He was in and out of the lineup under Todd McLellan and appeared in his first game under new Head Coach Jim Hiller on Sunday in Pittsburgh. Kaliyev played just 6:31 of 5-on-5 minutes, spent mostly with Trevor Lewis and Alex Turcotte on the team’s fourth line. It’s hard to find a role for him, though as noted above, the roster squeeze could end up getting tight enough to where he simply has to play.

Of course, the former second-round pick is still an intriguing talent that could have plenty of value. But does it make sense for the Kings to trade him for a future asset? He doesn’t make enough money to open up significant cap space and I don’t see how a dollar-for-dollar “hockey trade” makes the team any better. Unless he’s paired with someone, he may be in LA for the rest of the season.

Matt Roy

This is where it gets interesting. Matt Roy has shown to be a very good defensive defenseman, capable of playing top-four minutes. Personally, I don’t think it makes sense to trade Roy, but his $3.15 million cap hit is one of the very few that could open up real money. However, the 28-year-old is on an expiring contract so finding a deal with a team that thinks they can sign him and be willing to give LA something to help them this season seems unlikely.

This could be where Kaliyev comes in. Does pairing Kaliyev with Roy start to move the needle for a team? To me, if you’re trading Roy, you’re doing it to add a top-four defenseman – but one more capable with the puck. Jakob Chychrun is rumored to be on the market again. If Ottawa is willing to listen to a package that starts with Roy and Kaliyev, I’m having those conversations. Other than something along those lines, the team should keep Roy.

Jordan Spence

The emergence of Brandt Clarke – coupled with the team’s unwillingness to play their two young defensemen in the same lineup – could make Jordan Spence available. Like Kaliyev, he doesn’t do much in terms of clearing up cap space and the idea of trading him for futures wouldn’t make any sense. To me, the 22-year-old Spence would have to be paired with someone to bring in a valuable piece. But again, the money makes this hard to see.

Not to mention, among NHL defensemen who have played at least 300 minutes this season at 5-on-5, Spence ranks 4th in assists/60, 23rd in primary assists/60, and 14th in points/60. Probably not the guy to trade.

We’ve seen Rob Blake be willing to make a brash move to clear out money in a deal, so I’m certainly not ruling anything out.

If only there was a willingness for him and the organization to get a little creative with their own roster, they just might find internal solutions to their self-inflicted problems.

(Main Photo Credit: Jess Starr, The Hockey Writers)