LA Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs projected lineup, betting preview

The LA Kings look for another win north of the border when they visit the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday.

Projected Lineups

LA Kings (14-10-4)

This is how the Kings skated in practice on Wednesday (per LA Kings Insider):

Fiala – Kopitar – Kaliyev
Moore – Danault – Arvidsson
Iafallo – Kempe – Vilardi
Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte – Grundstrom
Fagemo

Anderson – Doughty
Durzi – Roy
Edler – Walker
Bjornfot

Quick
Copley

This reflects the same lineup that the Kings had in the team’s 5-2 win in Ottawa. Despite some good performances at the end of the homestand from Samuel Fagemo and Tobias Bjornfot, they appear to be scratches again tonight.

With Pheonix Copley picking up the win on Tuesday, I would think Jonathan Quick will get the nod in Toronto.

As always, keep an eye out for any morning skate updates.

Toronto Maple Leafs (16-5-6)

Here is how the Leafs lined up in Thursday’s morning skate:

#Leafs lines at morning skate Dec. 8/22

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Robertson-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Engvall
AstonReese-Holmberg-Malgin
Extra: Simmonds

Giordano-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Brodie-Timmins
Hollowell

Samsonov
Murray@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR

— David Alter (@dalter) December 8, 2022

TJ Brodie is expected to make his return to the lineup while Toronto is still without top defenseman Morgan Rielly. Matt Murray had a 44-save shutout on Tuesday but will make way for Ilya Samsonov in this one.

5-on-5

Here’s how the two teams match up at 5-on-5 per Natural Stat Trick

The Kings are settling into being a strong possession team once again at 5-on-5 after some turbulent times to start the season. While they certainly aren’t out of the woods in terms of their inconsistencies, the overall numbers are generally positive.

This is the second meeting between the two teams with LA winning 4-2 at the end of October back home in Southern California. The Kings had the edge in shot attempts (51% CF at 5-on-5) but the Leafs really controlled the scoring chance battle, dominating the expected goals (57%), scoring chances (58%), and high danger chances (61%) at 5-on-5. That game was one of the rare good goaltending performances this season from Cal Petersen.

Special Teams

I wouldn’t think I’d be uttering these words, but the LA Kings (26%, 8th in the NHL) boast a better power play than the Toronto Maple Leafs (23.3%, 14th in the NHL). With the man advantage, LA continues to be on fire. They scored two more goals in Ottawa on Tuesday and it’s been a key part of their offense in 2022-23.

Make no mistake, the Leafs’ power play is still extremely dangerous with the firepower they have. They’re one for their last seven with the man advantage.

Toronto does bring a top-ten penalty kill into this one (80%) while this is still a weak spot for the Kings (72%).

Betting Odds

Let’s take a look at the odds, courtesy of our partner Betstamp (promo code: hockeyroyalty).

*Note: the odds below are for sports books offered in New York. Refer to available sports books specific to your state.
**Odds as of 12:30 pm ET/9:30 am PT may have changed since this was published.

The Kings come in as road underdogs with BetRivers offering the best price at +155. Given the strong 5-on-5 possession numbers and LA’s improved power play, I actually think this is decent value on the Kings at +155 or better. If you do prefer the Leafs, both DraftKings and BetMGM are offering -175.

The total on the game is set at Six across the board. Several books have the Over at -110 while BetRivers’+102 on the Under is the best price there. I am a little surprised to see any Kings game come in with a total below 6.5. Take that for what it’s worth.

DraftKings Player Props

Sponsored by DraftKings (promo code THPN)

Since his hat trick in Edmonton, Trevor Moore has tallied just two goals in the nine games since. His line continues to create several scoring chances and Moore is right in the thick of that, being one of the team’s top contributors in shot contribution as well as leading the team in takeaways. He is +310 to score against his former team.

Arthur Kaliyev still feels a little underappreciated here. He’s the team’s top goalscorer on the power play and is now playing on the top line alongside Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala. He is +425 to score on Thursday.

Mitch Marner is riding a 20-game point streak, he is +135 to record two points or more. Nick Robertson is starting to etch out a place in this Leafs’ lineup. The promising youngster is playing alongside Marner and John Tavares and is +300 to find the back of the net against LA.

Good luck, and enjoy the game!

Follow me on Betstamp @JWPatarino! 

(Main Photo Credit: NHL.com)